Sunday, October 24, 2010

Are Polls always correct?

Polls are indisputably the most important thing before and on the election day. They are indicators of the final outcome of an election. They are not soothsayers. They are not always right and almost always are inaccurate. So what makes them so special and so exciting? The answer is-polls do what polls are supposed to do. They are probablities on how the election will turn out. Their function is less political and more psychological. Positive polls are probably the single most positive externality a candidate can hope to achieve. For the candidate, there's nothing more satisfying than seeing his/her opponent trailing. Hence. to keep himself ahead in polls, he will continue to pool in more resources and give more speeches, do everything he can and ought to do to secure a lead in the polls. But can he trust the polls. There are many instances in history where polls have failed. So is it safe for candidates to rely on polls? There is no 'yes' or 'no'. Candidates cannot be indifferent to polls while at the same time, it is dangerous to be overly dependent on them. In the day there is no poll that can foretell what can happen but they can come close and that's no small thing.

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